Monday, February 28, 2011

Свежий Талеб

Спонсор месяца - Упоминатор.Ру

It is my impression that, pace Marx, the market can act as some form of expropriation, all the way to destruction (what we are witnessing now). A transfer from the Kapital to the managers of companies (so Marx got it backwards, though he was right on fragility). Over the past decade, investors (mainly retirees) have lost several trillion dollars adjusted for financing/inflation (the market is where it was over 12 years ago; most people added above current levels). Meanwhile company managers and investment managers generated for themselves more than a trillion in fees, bonuses, stock options, etc. The problem has been more acute in Japan and Europe. Banks are a special case of fraud: managers extort the states (banking loses periodically more than all past cumulative profits, with losses covered by governments) -and the game continues (to wit, bonuses for 2010). Venture capital is another form of Ponzi in which people create companies to sell them to suckers, with greater-fool games, a transfer from investors and entrepreneurs to financiers.

The first problem is the absence of clawbacks (people make profits hiding risk then get an annual bonus off values at year end when risks explode every 8-15 years; the mismatch between bonuses and frequency of blowups). The second one is the free option granted to managers--upside not downside and transfer of fragility.

My answer: alas, the only robust form is owner operated or matters that escape the agency problem. It becomes obvious... An artisanal world. Privately owned companies, etc.

Probabilistic Growth: Some idiots keep countering me recently: "how can you get growth?", falling for the foolish separation growth-robustness. A car driven at 300 miles an hour on a country road will never get to destination, so speed needs to be discounted by the probability of crash; likewise you need to think in terms of probabilistic growth not nominal growth. Governments have not yet realized (too autitic bureaucrats) the notion of probabilistic growth in GDP.

Note: the same idiotic argument is made about financing "growth" with debt.


Спонсор месяца - Упоминатор.Ру


Blogger alexsmail said...

Повторение - мать учения. :-)

3:10 AM  
Blogger alexsmail said...

Ещё свежий Талеб

10:00 AM  

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