Россия-Саудовская Аравия: экспортная модель, битчес!

(вот зе фак из "экспортная модель"?)

Russia and Saudi Arabia are the world’s largest oil producers. They are also the world’s largest oil exporters, and from the perspective of a net oil importer like the U.S., oil exports matter far more than oil production. On this front, there is a critical difference between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Russia has continued to increase oil exports each and every year. Oil exports from Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, peaked in 2005.

Another important difference is that Russia, like nearly every other oil producing nation, does not claim to have any surplus production capacity. By contrast, Saudi Arabia is one of only four nations to claim that they have the ability to increase production at a moment’s notice. Saudi Arabia is, in fact, the only nation to claim significant surplus production capacity (3.15 million barrels per day), thus Saudi Arabia is the world’s swing producer.

Of course Saudi claims of surplus production capacity are not backed up by transparent and verifiable information, so market observers like me are left to interpret Saudi Arabia’s actions in addition to their words. Along these lines I am discouraged by the Kingdom’s actions. At the end of March, Saudi Arabian oil officials met with Halliburton to discuss plans to boost their oil-directed rig count by roughly 30%. The fact that there exists a strong inverse relationship between the amount of surplus production capacity and oil prices leaves the market observer wondering why on earth Saudi Arabia would make such a large investment to increase production capacity if their claims of having more than 3 million barrels per day of surplus production capacity reflect reality.

With Saudi Arabia already claiming production capacity of 12.5 million barrels per day, why would they look to further increase their production cushion? Do they think the price is too high, and look forward to earning less per barrel of exported oil? Obviously, not. Could it be that they are seeing internal demand climbing, and realize that without significant investment, their production cushion would be quickly eroded? Or could it be that their claim of 12.5 million barrels of capacity in place is, in fact, an overstatement?

According to a Saudi oil official interviewed by Reuters, the investment in new drilling rigs “is not to expand capacity. It’s to sustain current capacity on new fields and old fields that have been bottled up.” (1) This news on its own should be troubling as it infers that the Kingdom is facing significant declines on currently producing fields. Even more troubling is the recent statement by another senior Saudi oil official that the Kingdom “expects oil production to hold steady at an average of 8.7 million barrels per day to 2015.” (2) These statements made in regard to Saudi production call into question the Saudi willingness and ability to increase exports, which is tacitly understood to be the responsibility of the world’s only pivot producer. Moreover ...читать дальше.